Wednesday, July 30, 2014
PLACERVILLE, CALIFORNIA
99 CENTS

Estimating transit demand is tricky business

By
From page A1 | May 20, 2013 |

The county Transportation Commission recently unveiled a comprehensive assessment of public transportation alternatives and costs in El Dorado Hills, and took an analytical approach to the murky task of estimating transit demand.

The study, conducted by LSC Transportation Consultants in Tahoe City, used data from the American Community Survey, which is part of the U.S. Census, and techniques developed, in part, by principals of the firm for the Transportation Research Board of the American Academy of Scientists.

They found hidden pockets of poverty and a growing retiree population in the generally affluent community where increased commercial growth is fueling the local economy and providing more local destinations.

“But if you don’t have a car, you can’t get there,” said El Dorado Hills Senior Council Chair Yvonne Griffin, arguing for senior mobility to be formally included in community development efforts currently underway.

The study uses multiple approaches to capture transit demand in El Dorado Hills.

Transit need: 150,800 trips
Transit need is a broad social measure, using the 1,179 El Dorado Hills residents living below the poverty line and the 158 households without a vehicle and assuming they’d made a national average 2.5 trips per day if they had ready access to a car and could afford to put gas in it, resulting in a whopping 150,800 trips annually.

Transit demand
The transit demand calculation is a more pragmatic approach. It calculates demand in four broad and potentially overlapping usage categories: general public, social program, commuter and intercity trips.

General public: 65,000 trips
The study calculates general public transit demand two ways, then splits the difference to arrive at 65,000 currently unmet transit trips.

The first measure uses overall El Dorado Transit ridership levels, adjusts for the upscale El Dorado Hills demographics and posits demand for 79,400 transit trips each year.

The second measure is based on national usage statistics for fixed route service, and assumes that two buses operating in El Dorado Hills would generate 49,000 trips per year.

The study uses the difference, 65,000 trips, as the currently unmet general public demand.

Program trips: 32,500 trips
Social programs for seniors and the disabled require transportation, much of which is being provided by El Dorado Transit today. The big contributors in El Dorado Hills are senior nutrition at 9,900 trips and mental health services at 8,700.

Commuter trips: 55,000
One local transit bright spot is the fare revenue generated by the estimated 41,760 El Dorado Transit commute trips to or from El Dorado Hills each year, and how those bus fares help fund the entire system.

The study found 11,942 El Dorado Hills residents working outside the community as of 2010, 7,705 of whom work in Sacramento, Placer or Yolo counties and as such, are potential commuters. It estimates that 1.2 percent of those trips, 185 daily, or 47,500 annually, are candidates for public transit.

The study also found 10,752 workers in El Dorado Hills, 9,101 of which live elsewhere, and could generate 7,800 more transit trips per year.

Increased demand
The study predicts increased transit demand as fuel costs increase and the buildout of El Dorado Hills continues, but points out one factor more than any other driving demand for transit in El Dorado Hills: a senior population that grew from 7.5 percent in 2000 to 10.1 percent in 2010.

During that time the Four Seasons age-restricted community sold out quickly despite the housing downturn. The Carson Creek project will put 1,700 more senior homes between White Rock and Latrobe Roads, west of the business park.

Because age-restricted projects pay no school fees, enjoy discounts on other development fees and seem to sell well, residents can expect to see more senior housing proposed locally.

The draft El Dorado Hills Needs Assessment is available on the El Dorado County Transportation Commission Website at edctc.org/3/EDHTransitNeedsAsses-US50Plan.html, under projects.

Comments

comments

.

News

 
District 2 candidate statements tell of goals

By Dawn Hodson | From Page: A1

Sand Fire nears containment: 66 structures destroyed

By Cole Mayer | From Page: A1 | Gallery

 
Schedule for Highway 50 blasting closures

By News Release | From Page: A3

Tails wagging over dog park approval

By Julie Samrick | From Page: A3

 
Quarter-acre fire in Kelsey

By Rebecca Murphy | From Page: A3

.

Opinion

My Turn: Privatization of public services

By Mark Belden | From Page: A4

 
Policy book

By Mountain Democrat | From Page: A4

 
.

Letters

Piano replaced

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A5

 
Comments sign-in policy

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A5, 1 Comment

Save the Guinea Worm

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A5, 1 Comment

 
Large bangs

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A5, 2 Comments

Private property gets no respect

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A5, 1 Comment

 
GDPUD management report

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A5

District 2 supervisorial special election

By Letters to the Editor | From Page: A5, 3 Comments

 
.

Sports

Ex-Bruin lends a helping hand

By Steven Shaff | From Page: A8 | Gallery

 
Sierra Sharks finish middle of the pack

By Democrat Staff | From Page: A8

Roundup: July 29, 2014

By Democrat Staff | From Page: A8

 
Taz pull through for SSL trophy

By Patty Pope | From Page: A8

.

Prospecting

Nuns discover a pleasant place

By Lexi Boeger | From Page: B1 | Gallery

 
Bargains can be found everywhere

By Democrat Staff | From Page: B2 | Gallery

At a glance: Game time

By Mimi Escabar | From Page: B2

 
Barbecue dinner to benefit Blue Star Moms

By Mount Aukum Winery | From Page: B2

Stagecoach story takes riders on a trip

By Wendy Schultz | From Page: B3

 
Help needed to make cool ties

By Sew 4 | From Page: B3

Stroke and osteoporosis screenings planned

By Life Line Screening | From Page: B3

 
Gold Rush Days activities cancelled this year

By Sacramento Convention And Visitors Center | From Page: B4

Master Food Preservers: Tomato time

By Monique Wilber | From Page: B4

 
Sacramento area museums offer summer fun

By Sacramento Association Of Museums | From Page: B5

 
Build an author platform at the Library

By El Dorado | From Page: B5

.

Essentials

Weather stats 7-29-14

By Michael Raffety | From Page: A2

 
Building permits 6/2-6/2014

By Michael Raffety | From Page: A2Comments are off for this post

Crime Log: July 17

By Cole Mayer | From Page: A2

 
.

Obituaries

Merlyn Wilbur Adams

By Contributor | From Page: A2

 
Lisa Oliver Rose

By Contributor | From Page: A2

Wallace Murrel Thomas

By Contributor | From Page: A2

 
.

Real Estate

.

Comics

.

Women’s Health

Love the skin you’re in

By Noel Stack | From Page: WH4

Dump stress and improve your health, productivity

By Wendy Schultz | From Page: WH7Comments are off for this post

Women’s Health Expo

By Marshall Medical | From Page: WH8

Find the confidence you need to fight back

By Special to the Democrat | From Page: WH12

Our choices directly affect our health

By Special to the Democrat | From Page: WH14

They’re NOT your mother’s hearing devices!

By Marshall Medical | From Page: WH17