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UOP forecast upbeat for 2014-15

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From page A3 | September 23, 2013 | 5 Comments

STOCKTON — California will experience faster economic growth in 2014 and 2015, according to the latest projection from the Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific, released Sept. 19.

The center forecasts real gross state product will grow 3.3 percent in 2014, and accelerate to 3.9 percent in 2015 as the housing recovery begins to fuel new construction and job growth. The nearly 4 percent growth rate in 2015 will be the highest California has experienced since 2005.

Job growth is anticipated to stay steady at 2 percent, but the composition of job growth will shift towards middle-class jobs as the construction industry recovers and state and local government employment changes from job loss to modest growth. In contrast, growth in the lower-paying hospitality sector should decline in 2014, and retail job growth will remain sluggish.

In the regional outlook, the Sacramento forecast has been upgraded due to improving data, the stimulus of downtown arena development, the housing market surge and the improved state budget that is boosting local paychecks. After years of lagging behind, Sacramento is now projected to lead the region in 2015 with 2.8 percent annual job growth.

The Stockton metro area is expected to lead job growth over the next year. The projected 3.4 percent growth is fueled by hiring at the new prison health care facility, Amazon’s new Tracy fulfillment center, the improving real estate market and increased construction in areas near the Altamont Pass.

In addition to detailed five-year economic projections California and 10 metro areas, the forecast includes essays discussing the latest developments in the Stockton bankruptcy case, the surging housing market and the financial problems plaguing the high-speed rail and Delta water tunnels mega-projects.

The Business Forecasting Center at the University of the Pacific was founded in 2004. Housed in the Eberhardt School of Business, the center produces quarterly economic forecasts of California and 10 metropolitan areas in Northern and Central California, in-depth studies of regional issues, and offers custom economic research services to public and private sector clients. For more information, visit forecast.pacific.edu. 

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Discussion | 5 comments

  • cookie65September 23, 2013 - 6:38 am

    So the state that has fallen from the 5th largest economy to the 11th largest economy with $200 billion in unfunded public sector legacy cost and the highest tax rates in the country is going to outperform the nations GDP by a factor of 4? Does this report include the fact that this state supports 1/3 of the nations welfare? Did this report factor in the business and job crushing implementation of obamacare? Does this report consider the municipalities filing for bankruptcy? Are my questions within the topic boundaries or would it be more suiting for me to just agree with these finding with blind abandonment designed not to offend any readers? For those of you who prefer just being told what to believe, please accept my apology. And sincere regret for having strayed from the topic of make-believe economic recovery.

    Reply | Report abusive comment
  • Bill E.September 23, 2013 - 7:30 am

    What did UOP say last year and the year before that? How accurate were they? There are a lot of people and small business owners still waiting for the recovery to kick into gear. And, then here comes the healthcare hit. LA and SF are starting to grow again, but it has been a long slog for the rural areas. Let's hope they are right for ALL areas of the state.

    Reply | Report abusive comment
  • EvelynOctober 02, 2013 - 7:16 am

    If you've ever heard of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, raise your hand. "Obama’s Super Secret Treaty Which Will Push The Deindustrialization Of America Into Overdrive" - HERE: Did you know that this agreement will impose very strict Internet copyright rules, ban all "Buy American" laws, give Wall Street banks much more freedom to trade risky derivatives and force even more domestic manufacturing offshore?

    Reply | Report abusive comment
  • EvelynOctober 02, 2013 - 7:18 am

    "A Corporate Coup in Disguise - The Trans-Pacific Partnership would create a virtually permanent corporate rule over the people" - HERE

    Reply | Report abusive comment
  • EvelynOctober 02, 2013 - 7:36 am

    "We Are 90 Days Away from the Total Loss of US Sovereignty" - HERE

    Reply | Report abusive comment
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