Making assumptions to justify conclusions

By November 7, 2010

Mr. McHenry’s recent letter attempts to validate Mr. Alger’s contention that Japan had no intentions of invading America, and he does this by listing a Japanese war plan of Sept. 6, 1941 (we will assume he is correct in stating such). This
war plan had seven objectives, none of which included invading our West Coast.  Of course this war plan was fixed and absolute, not to be ever changed by unfolding events. No changes. Carved in stone. No objective No. 8, ever.

Mr. McHenry, you are making an assumption about war plans to justify your conclusion. As you well know from your extensive service in the War Plans Division in the Pentagon your assumption is incorrect. Plans are not static but made
to be changed as events unfold.

You fault me for my opinions, and then you do the same in what if the Germans had defeated Russia?

How about if the Germans had beat us in the development of the atom bomb? How about if the Germans had their jet fighters on line in 1943 and decimated our Eighth Air Force? How about if the Germans had developed long range missiles? How about
if the Germans had quickly brought up their armored divisions and thrown our invasion forces back into the sea? Sure are lots of “ifs” in war planning.

To believe the Japanese had no intentions at any time to invade is something that a war planner, Japanese or American, would never conclude with the certainty you and Mr. Alger have expressed. You can be assured there was a Japanese war
plan to invade the United States, as it is what war planners do. As an example, I believe it was recently revealed that our war planners have a contingency plan against Great Britain. Unlikely to be acted upon, but ready if necessary and filed in one of those large safes in the War Plans Division.
Wait, you weren’t really in the War Plans Division were you? I should have guessed.


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